The Mandalorian and Grogu Set to Rule Memorial Day Frame With Positive Reactions From Moviegoers
The Memorial Day box office has a clear winner this weekend, even if the numbers may not reach the heights some fans were hoping for.
Disney and Lucasfilm’s The Mandalorian and Grogu is on track to easily claim the top spot during the holiday frame, with projections pointing to an opening between $91 million and $96 million over the four-day weekend. While some industry estimates have suggested the film could still push toward $100 million, current tracking places the movie slightly below that milestone. The film earned approximately $33 million from Thursday previews and Friday ticket sales combined, putting it firmly in control of the box office race.
‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ Delivers a Strong, If Not Record-Breaking, Opening
For Disney, the debut represents a solid return for the Star Wars franchise on the big screen. Audience reactions have been largely positive, with moviegoers awarding the film an A- CinemaScore. That score matches the audience grade earned by Solo: A Star Wars Story, while early recommendation metrics suggest most viewers are encouraging others to see the film.
Premium formats continue to play a major role in the movie’s success. Nearly half of all ticket sales have come from IMAX and other premium large-format screens, with IMAX alone accounting for roughly 16% of revenue. Three-dimensional screenings have also generated significant interest.
The film has performed especially well across western and midwestern markets, with locations such as AMC Disney Springs near Walt Disney World ranking among the highest-grossing theaters in North America.
Horror Hit ‘Obsession’ Continues to Defy Expectations
The biggest surprise of the weekend may not be a new release at all. Focus Features and Blumhouse’s horror thriller Obsession is projected to increase its box office performance during its second weekend, an increasingly rare achievement for modern horror films. Current projections have the film earning nearly $20 million over the traditional three-day frame and approximately $24.8 million during the four-day holiday weekend.
If those numbers hold, Obsession will surpass the pace of several recent horror successes and continue establishing itself as one of the breakout hits of the year.
Audience enthusiasm remains strong as well. Recommendation scores have improved since opening weekend, and the film appears to be attracting a broader audience than initially expected. Women now make up a larger portion of ticket buyers compared to opening weekend, while younger moviegoers continue to drive much of the film’s success.
‘Michael’ Remains a Box Office Force
Even in its fifth weekend, Michael continues to generate impressive numbers. The Michael Jackson biopic is expected to earn roughly $23.6 million during the four-day holiday frame, pushing its domestic total to nearly $318 million. The film has also maintained strong momentum internationally and is approaching $800 million worldwide.
Few films released this year have demonstrated the same staying power. Despite facing new competition every week, Michael continues to attract audiences and has become one of the biggest box office stories of 2026.
Newcomer ‘Passenger’ Looks for a Solid Start
Among the weekend’s smaller releases, Paramount’s horror film Passenger is projected to open with approximately $10.2 million over the four-day holiday period.
Produced on a modest budget, the film appears to be landing close to pre-release expectations. Early audience reactions have been mixed but respectable, with younger moviegoers making up the largest portion of ticket buyers.
While Passenger is unlikely to challenge the weekend’s top performers, a solid opening could position it for profitability if it maintains decent momentum in the coming weeks.
The Full Top Five Projection
Heading into the remainder of the holiday weekend, the projected top five looks like this:
- The Mandalorian and Grogu — $91 million to $96 million (four-day opening)
- Obsession — $24.8 million
- Michael — $23.6 million
- The Devil Wears Prada 2 — $14.6 million
- Sheep Detectives — $11 million
Holiday Weekend Falls Short of Last Year’s Record
Despite the strong debut of The Mandalorian and Grogu, overall Memorial Day box office revenue is expected to reach approximately $209 million across all films.
That figure represents a noticeable decline from last year’s record-setting holiday frame, which generated more than $330 million domestically. Still, the weekend demonstrates that audiences continue to show up for major event films, especially established franchises like Star Wars.
For Disney, the biggest takeaway is simple: The Mandalorian and Grogu is giving the studio another blockbuster and putting the Star Wars brand back at the center of the theatrical conversation. Whether it ultimately reaches $100 million over the holiday weekend remains to be seen, but for now, Grogu is comfortably leading the box office galaxy.
