Disney appears to have another summer hit on its hands. According to early box office tracking, the upcoming live-action adaptation of Moana is projected to debut with an impressive $85 million opening weekend when it arrives in theaters on July 10.
While that number falls short of some recent Disney blockbusters, it would still represent a strong start for the beloved franchise and continue Disney’s trend of revisiting its animated classics in live-action form.
Moana Continues Disney’s Live-Action Strategy
The live-action version brings back Dwayne Johnson as Maui, the larger-than-life demigod he famously voiced in the original 2016 animated film. Newcomer Catherine Laga’aia takes over the role of the titular character, stepping into one of Disney’s most popular modern princess roles.
Directed by Thomas Kail, the film aims to recreate the magic of the original while introducing the story to a new generation of moviegoers.
The original animated film was a major success for Disney, earning strong reviews and becoming one of the most-streamed animated films in the company’s history. The franchise received another major boost with the massive success of the sequel, which became one of the biggest box office hits of 2024.
Competition Could Impact Moana’s Box Office Ceiling
While an $85 million debut would be considered a success, Moana faces a crowded summer marketplace.
Pixar’s Toy Story 5 is expected to dominate theaters heading into July, with projections reportedly ranging between $140 million and $150 million for its opening weekend. Meanwhile, Universal and Illumination’s Minions & Monsters is also expected to draw significant family audiences during the same period.
Because of that competition, Disney may have a harder time reaching the massive opening numbers that the sequel enjoyed during its record-setting Thanksgiving debut.
Still, the current projections place Moana in a similar range to the live-action How to Train Your Dragon, which opened to strong numbers and went on to become a major success.
Family Audiences Appear Ready to Return to the Islands
Early tracking data suggests that families remain highly interested in the film. Parents are showing a strong interest in taking younger children to see the live-action remake, particularly girls under the age of 12. While interest levels are reportedly below what Disney saw with Moana 2 and the recent Lilo & Stitch adaptation, they remain ahead of several comparable family releases.
That should be encouraging news for Disney, especially considering the enduring popularity of these characters.
Moana Could Become Disney’s Next Summer Hit
With an iconic soundtrack, beloved characters, and one of Disney’s strongest modern franchises behind it, Moana is positioned for a successful theatrical run.
An $85 million opening would give the film an excellent foundation, and positive word of mouth could help it sail far beyond that number. As July approaches, Disney will be hoping audiences are once again ready to answer the call of the ocean.
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