Weekend Box Office Preview: ‘Black Phone 2’ Leads Diverse Slate

The box office heads into the heart of October with a mix of genres and ambitions, as several newcomers and holdovers vie for audience attention in a market still searching for a late-fall breakout. This weekend, Universal and Blumhouse look to reignite horror fever with Black Phone 2, but comedy and sci-fi are firmly in the mix as Lionsgate’s Good Fortune and Disney’s Tron: Ares battle for viewers. Let’s break down the prospects and projections for each major title in this comprehensive weekend preview.

Weekend Box Office Preview: October 17-19

‘Black Phone 2’ Ready to Ring Up Chills

The clear headliner is Black Phone 2, the sequel to the 2022 horror hit that launched Ethan Hawke’s chilling “Grabber” into genre lore. Scott Derrickson returns with the original cast, once again courting horror fans hungry for Halloween haunts. Industry projections put the new installment’s opening at $20 million to $25 million from roughly 3,200 theaters, on par with the first film’s $23.6 million start. Some forecasts even allow for a stretch higher if positive reviews (85% on Rotten Tomatoes) and the Halloween season amplify turnout. Blumhouse is hoping for a much-needed win after a string of underperformers, and solid post-festival buzz gives Black Phone 2 strong legs heading into its debut.

‘Good Fortune’ Offers Star Power Counterprogramming

While horror takes center stage, Good Fortune targets adult audiences looking for laughs. Aziz Ansari directs, writes, and stars in this high-concept body-swap comedy alongside Keanu Reeves, Seth Rogen, Keke Palmer, and Sandra Oh. The film debuts in close to 3,000 theaters and is tracking for an opening between $6 million and $10 million. Strong reviews (84% on Rotten Tomatoes) and a genuinely unique cast could help it climb, but the R-rated comedy faces a challenging market and mid-range box office expectations—consistent with recent performances by similar star-driven comedies. For viewers not drawn to jump scares, Good Fortune presents a welcome change.

‘Tron: Ares’ in Week Two: Can Sci-Fi Hold?

Last week’s big studio launch, Disney’s Tron: Ares, took the top spot but disappointed with a $33.2 million debut. The sequel is expected to drop by around 60% in its sophomore frame, with projections between $12 million and $15 million likely. Despite a glowing 87% audience score, sci-fi sequels have trended front-loaded, and brand fatigue may limit the upside. However, Ares retains many premium-format screens, which could flatten its descent. Ancillary synergy with Disney’s parks is a bonus, but theatrical grosses remain underwhelming for the series.

Faith-Based & Prestige Releases Round Out the Market

• Truth & Treason: Angel Studios’ historical drama will play in approximately 2,000 theaters, aiming for $2 million to $4 million. Established faith-based audiences may turn out but pre-release buzz is moderate.
• One Battle After Another: Paul Thomas Anderson’s Oscar-bound drama continues its run, forecasted for $4 million to $4.5 million as it gradually cedes screens to wider releases.
• Roofman: This offbeat dramedy is expected to pull in around $4 million, though it’s trending downward after a soft opening.

Other notable titles such as Gabby’s Dollhouse, The Conjuring: Last Rites, and After the Hunt remain in play with more modest expectations, each hoping to claim niche audience segments in a crowded market.

Industry Outlook

The coming weekend is unlikely to snap the industry out of its autumnal softness, with the total box office forecast to only slightly improve on last year’s comparable frame. Horror remains the top draw, but broad four-quadrant appeal will have to wait for Thanksgiving and the holiday push, when tentpoles like Predator: Badlands and Zootopia 2 arrive.

Still, Black Phone 2 should deliver the season’s best chills, Good Fortune gives comedy fans a reason to visit, and Tron: Ares hopes to attract remaining sci-fi diehards. It’s a weekend of choice at the movies—just the way October should be.